Global Market RegimeRisk-On
BTCBUYHigh confidence74/100
ETHBUYMedium confidence65/100
BTC Signal
$77,775
+0.32%
BUYbullHigh confidence
CONVICTION74/100
MARKET SENTIMENT— probability distribution across outcomes
BUY
70%
HOLD
20%
SELL
10%
DOMINANT DRIVERS
›On-chain: MVRV Z-Score indicating BUY signal
›QuantFusion: Strong BUY call with high conviction
›FearGreed: Extreme Fear (score 31) often precedes bounces
Invalidation level
$77,775How invalidation is calculated
Set at the nearest structural level that would negate the current call:
• BUY: last major swing low — a close below invalidates the bull thesis
• SELL: last major swing high — a close above invalidates the bear thesis
• HOLD: midpoint of the current range
Derived by the LLM from current price, 200d MA, and recent range extremes.
WAS THIS SIGNAL ACCURATE?
ETH Signal
$2,321
+0.46%
BUYbullMedium confidence
CONVICTION65/100
MARKET SENTIMENT— probability distribution across outcomes
BUY
60%
HOLD
25%
SELL
15%
DOMINANT DRIVERS
›QuantFusion: Moderate BUY call with good conviction
›FearGreed: Extreme Fear (score 31) often precedes bounces
›On-chain: NVT indicating OVERSOLD conditions
Invalidation level
$2,321How invalidation is calculated
Set at the nearest structural level that would negate the current call:
• BUY: last major swing low — a close below invalidates the bull thesis
• SELL: last major swing high — a close above invalidates the bear thesis
• HOLD: midpoint of the current range
Derived by the LLM from current price, 200d MA, and recent range extremes.
WAS THIS SIGNAL ACCURATE?
BTC Signal
$77,775
+0.32%
BUYbullHigh confidence
CONVICTION74/100
MARKET SENTIMENT— probability distribution across outcomes
BUY
70%
HOLD
20%
SELL
10%
DOMINANT DRIVERS
›On-chain: MVRV Z-Score indicating BUY signal
›QuantFusion: Strong BUY call with high conviction
›FearGreed: Extreme Fear (score 31) often precedes bounces
Invalidation level
$77,775How invalidation is calculated
Set at the nearest structural level that would negate the current call:
• BUY: last major swing low — a close below invalidates the bull thesis
• SELL: last major swing high — a close above invalidates the bear thesis
• HOLD: midpoint of the current range
Derived by the LLM from current price, 200d MA, and recent range extremes.
WAS THIS SIGNAL ACCURATE?
ETH Signal
$2,321
+0.46%
BUYbullMedium confidence
CONVICTION65/100
MARKET SENTIMENT— probability distribution across outcomes
BUY
60%
HOLD
25%
SELL
15%
DOMINANT DRIVERS
›QuantFusion: Moderate BUY call with good conviction
›FearGreed: Extreme Fear (score 31) often precedes bounces
›On-chain: NVT indicating OVERSOLD conditions
Invalidation level
$2,321How invalidation is calculated
Set at the nearest structural level that would negate the current call:
• BUY: last major swing low — a close below invalidates the bull thesis
• SELL: last major swing high — a close above invalidates the bear thesis
• HOLD: midpoint of the current range
Derived by the LLM from current price, 200d MA, and recent range extremes.
WAS THIS SIGNAL ACCURATE?
Google Trends — Worldwide (web search)
Last refresh: 25/04/2026, 18:09 SGT
Trends data stale — last good pull: 25/04/2026, 18:09. Error: spawn /usr/bin/python3.11 ENOENT Values shown are from previous run.
Bitcoin (BTC)
— NEUTRAL
50±0 (flat)
7d MA
50
30d MA
50
1y z-score
0.00
5y z-score
0.00
5y Percentile
50th
FOMO Breadth
0%
Ethereum (ETH)
— NEUTRAL
50±0 (flat)
7d MA
50
30d MA
50
1y z-score
0.00
5y z-score
0.00
5y Percentile
50th
FOMO Breadth
0%
Charts unavailable — Trends data stale
Fear & Greed Index
Fear
Velocity: +4 pts/7d
Fear — cautious accumulation
ETH / BTC Ratio
Pair Trade ViewFlat
0.02984
BTC favored (≤0.036)
Threshold: 0.036
Trading Volume Momentum — BTC & ETH (90d)
What this shows: Normalized on-chain trading volume (0–100) used as a proxy for market participation and search interest. Low readings (<30) signal accumulation zones — low retail participation, historically favorable entry. High readings (>70) signal distribution risk — peak retail interest, historically precedes corrections.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Low — accumulation zone
6
/ 100
7d trend: falling (-5.6 pts)
Ethereum (ETH)
Low — accumulation zone
7
/ 100
7d trend: falling (-4.3 pts)
Narrative
The market is in a 'Risk-On' regime, with both BTC and ETH showing bullish signals from the QuantFusion layer, indicating Strong and Moderate BUY calls respectively. On-chain metrics for BTC, such as MVRV Z-Score, support a BUY signal, while NVT for ETH suggests oversold conditions. The Fear & Greed Index is in 'Fear' territory, which historically can be a good entry point. Derivatives funding rates are neutral. No significant divergences or failed data sources were noted, leading to a high conviction BUY for BTC and medium for ETH.
Predictability Module
Daily View — Daily signals are the primary calibration timeframe for this model. Highest reliability.
BTCBUY
Moderate Confidence56%
✓ F&G index aligned with call direction
ETHBUY
Low Confidence38%
✓ F&G index aligned with call direction
SIGNAL AGE
< 1h ago
Fresh — high reliability
REGIME STABILITY
Stable
Stable — BTC & ETH aligned
HOW CONFIDENCE IS CALCULATED
Base score: Distance of conviction score from 50 (neutral), scaled 0–100. A score of 80/100 → 60% base confidence.
Timeframe multiplier: 1H × 0.55 · 4H × 0.72 · 1D × 1.00 · 1W × 1.15 — longer frames reduce noise, increasing confidence.
Consistency bonus (+8%): Applied when Fear & Greed Index direction aligns with the signal call (contrarian alignment).
Cap: Maximum 100%. This is a model confidence score, not a price probability.
Signal History
| Timestamp (SGT) | BTC Price | BTC Call | BTC Score | ETH Price | ETH Call | ETH Score | F&G | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr, 06:05 pm | $77,775 | BUY | 74 | $2,321 | BUY | 65 | 31 | Risk-On |
| 25 Apr, 06:02 pm | $77,753 | BUY | 65 | $2,321 | HOLD | 58 | 31 | Accumulation |
| 25 Apr, 05:58 pm | $77,779 | BUY | 65 | $2,323 | HOLD | 58 | 31 | Accumulation |
| 25 Apr, 05:56 pm | $77,767 | HOLD | 56 | $2,323 | HOLD | 48 | 31 | Transition |
| 25 Apr, 05:55 pm | $77,754 | BUY | 74 | $2,322 | BUY | 65 | 31 | Risk-On |
| 25 Apr, 05:48 pm | $77,734 | BUY | 65 | $2,322 | HOLD | 58 | 31 | Accumulation |
| 25 Apr, 04:11 pm | $77,581 | BUY | 66 | $2,319 | HOLD | 58 | 31 | Accumulation |